Slow Week

Not a whole lot to talk about after last week's relatively slim pickings game-wise.  Stanford revealed a potentially fine downfield passing attack which, theoretically, should open things up for their run game.  The first big test is at home Saturday versus the Dawgies from Washington. UW shut them down in Seattle last year, but that was before Stanford started Kevin Hogan at quarterback.  UW QB Kevin Price looks back on form this year and it should be a fun game.

Bon Mots du Jour
Some nice quips from Jon Wilner's blog in the San Jose Mercury News (I just love the name of that paper):

• On the upcoming Oregon-Colorado matchup:  "No chance the Ducks put 70 on CU this year. They won’t score more than 65."
• On USC:  "Given Lane Kiffin’s track record, look for him to be named coach of the Patriots tomorrow."

Why Do I Bother
Can someone please explain to me why Ohio State is ranked ahead of Stanford?  The Bucks resume includes wins over Buffalo (they who were taken to overtime by Stony Brook!), a lousy San Diego State, Cal (OSU gave up 34 points to arguably the second worst team in the PAC) and perennial powerhouse Florida A&M.  They then squeaked by Wisconsin at home.  Stanford doesn't have a great resume yet, but flattened an Arizona State team in Tempe that already beat Wisconsin.  Yeah, a bit convoluted.  But conventional wisdom has the PAC as one of the strongest conferences in the country and the Bee-One-Gee as one of the weak sisters.  So whazzup?

Don Nehlen Football

Stanford
The Cardinal pulled a Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde Saturday v. Arizona State.  Going up 29-0 at the half there appeared nothing Stanford could not do:  run, pass, return kicks, kick covereage, run defense, pass defense.  You name it.

Now, to be fair, ASU made some mental errors, like dropped passes, that really hurt.  And Stanford pulled out some new formations and some tricky plays that really put ASU on their heels.  Thus played out a most impressive first half for the Cardinal.

The fourth quarter was a total mystery to me.  Coach David Shaw's post-game reaction was as lame as the team's performance that fifteen minutes.  It was truly painful watching Arizona State finally get it together and start putting together some big plays and post 21 points sandwiched around two Stanford three-and-outs.  For those series, Shaw put in reserve QB Evan Crower -- who many say has a great arm and just as great a future ahead at Stanford -- and promptly shelved his game plan.  He had Crower hand off up the middle on six consecutive snaps.  Because the Cardinal lined up in their packed muscle formation, everyone knew it was coming.  Including the Sun Devils.  To no one's surprise, ASU stuffed them.

Now about Shaw's reaction.   He was clearly defensive when the question came up from a very timid radio post game interviewer. Blaming his players, Shaw said his charges didn't execute as expected in the fourth quarter.  Oh, please.  You have to have something to work with first, reference: the play calls. On defense he had a point.  They just didn't get it done in the fourth.  But because Shaw packed up the offense, the defense found themselves on the field all the time, and fatigue had to be a factor.  But you have to give ASU some credit.  To quote a response to Joe Paterno's carping some fifty years ago, "Hey, c'mon Joe, the other team has some good players, too!"  (My Dad knew a fellow assistant coach of Paterno's.  A good story.)

All in all, Shaw's poor decisions let his team down.  Reminds me of another coach who really had a way with bad decisions.  He was fired from Bowling Green State University for it and subsequently served some years as an assistant to Bo Schembechler at Michigan.  There he learned from the master and, older, wiser and better, went on to great success at West Virginia.

Don Nehlen football.  We don't need that at Stanford.

Utah v. BYU
Disgraceful.

What is it with referees and the god schools (BYU and Notre Dame)?  I saw some incredibly bad calls by the refs, all in the fourth quarter, that handed BYU numerous opportunities to pull out the game vs. Utah.  They even overturned a pass interference penalty against the Cougars.  When have you ever seen that one?  Replays showed the refs were clearly wrong in their replay assessment.


ESPN Talking Head
Former U-Dub QB Brock Huard is now a color commentator on ESPN.  He's gotta be one of the best I've seen.  This guy has it all.  He's smart and knowledgeable, and also has the voice and the looks for TV.  I remember sitting a few rows behind him when he was still a blemish-faced high school recruit out of Puyallup attending a UW game while his older brother, Damon, was at the helm for the Dawgies. Brock eventually QB'd the Huskies and went on to the NFL with the Seahawks and Colts.     


Qwik Thots

• I've never gotten fully comfortable with those one color uniforms.  Particularly red ones.  I still think they look like pajamas. 
•  From the "Are You Stoned or Something" files:  Why is Notre Dame called the Irish?  It's French.  Yeah, I get the Irish Catholic thing.  But it's namesake is the home of Quasimodo for crying out loud.

Futbol Thots is back up and running for 2013. Let's start off with general musings about trends in the game.

Up Tempo Offense
This latest fad in college football offense, popularized by Oregon, I believe, has swept the country.  I still can't shake the feeling that its just too gimmicky.  Yeah, keep the defense from situational substitutions on each play, tire out the defense.  I get all that.  But it seems to me that, taken to the hurry-up extremes of some teams, its just a bush league trick to get the play off before the other team is ready.  Funny, though, how the no-huddle makes the game more like its root game rugby.

Helmet No-Hit Rules
This is one change I have welcomed.  Some folks have said its taking the toughness out of football.  Well, just tell that to the guys who played with little padding three generations ago.  No, the new rules are welcome.  Using the body as a helmet-tipped missile is dangerous for both tackler and the tackled.  It's only modern equipment that made them possible and it took football in a direction it was never meant to go.  No intentional helmet-to-helmet contact, no helmet-first into the chest or chin on a vulnerable opponent.

I saw a couple of instances this past weekend of tacklers who opted for a solid wrap-up tackle instead of a missile hit.  Not only is the change doable, it's also a good idea.  It's what we used to do when we tackled without protective equipment.  It kind of pulls the game back to its roots.   Sorta like...wait for it...rugby.

PAC
The PAC is off to a good start this year, so far fulfilling expectations as being a premier conference.  The marquee game was UCLA executing a second-half dismantling of Nebraska.  Oregon looks scary, again.  But don't also forget that Cal, considered by some as possibly the worst team in the league, rolled up a ton of points on Ohio State, a team many expect to play for the national championship.  

Kudos
To Todd Graham, Arizona State head coach who gets on defensive coordinator Paul Randolph after watching one of his players excessively celebrate a tackle for a loss.
"Do we do that here?" he asks.
"No, sir," Randolph responds.
"We don't do that crap here," Graham barks. "Tell him to cut it out. Hold him accountable. Teach him."
Graham may be a "jar-head," but he's my kind of jar-head, at least in this case.

Most Overrated (so far)
Gotta be Notre Dame (yeah, big surprise there) and Northwestern.  ND usually gets an automatic berth in the ratings just by, well, being ND.  What's their resume so far?  Wins over powerhouse Temple and rival Michigan, then a squeaker against a Purdue team blown out by Cincinnati and barely got past Indiana State.

I watched Northwestern just get by (and get out-gained by) Cal in the opener for both teams in Berkeley.  They got past Syracuse on four-turnovers and then beat Western Michigan, an 0-3 team that was knocked off by Nicholls State.  They have Maine up next, so one more week in the rankings.  After that it's Ohio State and Wisconsin.  They'll drop from the rankings, never to be seen again.

Some Fun
Now this is something you don't see everyday.  Stanford reserve safety, Joe Flacco, had a most excellent adventure during his team's visit to West Point v. the Black Knights of Army.

Bowl Update #3

Computer v. the Experts v. the Sports Proletariat
Popular consensus has been much revered these past ten years, popularized by Smart Mobs and The Wisdom of the Crowds.  It has even spilled over into our political discussions, bipartisanship being the resulting much sought holy grail. The idea is that you'll get a pretty accurate prediction or estimate on something if you just let a whole lot of people vote on it.  The same principle has been popularly applied to market theory (hey, they can't all be wrong, can they?)  I've always felt the concept was a lot of mush, nothing more than popular anti-elitist esteem building to push back against disciplined statistical analysis.  

College football, of course, has been way ahead of the curve, basing the process of selecting its national champions on polls. But there are polls and there are polls. There's the USA Today Coaches Poll, the AP Sportswriters poll and the various computer polls.  The results of the first two are suspect, as I pointed out in a previous post, subject to regional bias.  Are the computer polls any better?  Inquiring minds want to know.

I thought I'd do a quick check, picking the well-regarding Sagarin poll and comparing its bowl predictions to the AP, USA Today and point spreads (which are determined largely by the betting public).  Given that the computer poll can sometimes produce some eye-popping, seemingly preposterous conclusions (e.g. Stanford is rated #1 in Sagarin's "predictor" analysis), the results are enlightening.

On my sampling of a dozen bowls involving major conferences, the AP and Coaches poll both collected 7-5 records, wrongly picking winners in the same games: South Carolina, Michigan State, Missouri, Nebraska and West Virginia.  Sagarin's computer poll and the point spread odds both went 9-3, correctly picking Florida State over South Carolina and Alabama over Michigan State (the latter is the poster child of how ridiculously biased the polls can be).

Based on this sampling, the computer bettered the "experts."  But so did the point spreads, determined as they are by the unwashed masses.  There's going to be separation in the next two major bowls, however.  The AP poll, USA Today poll and the mob all pick Auburn over Oregon and LSU over Texas A&M.  The computer has LSU and Texas A&M in a dead heat.  But only the computer picks Oregon.  We shall see...

Bowl Update #2

Big Ten Carnage
Big Ten football is in the news, but not in the way they would prefer.  I just finished reading an ESPN interview of Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany. Among his comments about the Big 10's New Year's Day of losses are these bon mots:

I’ve always sought out ...the best competition.  [Y]ou test yourself against the best and you get measured. If you want to be .500 or if you want to win 70 percent of your games, you can schedule that. A lot of people do in September. What it really comes down to is how you play big games against great opponents...

Oh, really?

I did a bit of research into scheduling, comparing the Big Ten with the PAC 10 (Unfortunately, I don't have the time to crunch numbers on the other major conferences).  The results are revealing. They may help explain the Big Ten's Bowl difficulties.

First, let's look at regular season non-conference games against BCS conference teams or other (typically) good teams (such as Notre Dame, Boise State and TCU). It doesn't necessarily mean you played a quality team, since schedules are often formulated years in advance.  But it gives you an idea of the two conference's relative level of confidence on the national stage.

	# of Quality Non-Conference Games	Average Per Team
Big Ten	9	.9
PAC 10	17	1.7

Keeping in mind that the PAC 10 plays three non-conference games, that means just one is a "sure thing." The Big Ten typically schedules about three such gimmes.

Now let's turn to the number of home games.  It's a given that the home advantage is a huge factor in college football success.

	Average # Home Games Per Team
Big Ten	7.2
PAC 10	6.2

So, do this little mind experiment: change a Big Ten home game to an away game.  Take away one of their patsy non-conference games and add a game versus a BCS conference.  Take away another patsy non-conference game and replace it with a league game (matching the PAC 10's full schedule). I would think its pretty safe to say that you're going to add an average of one loss per team. At least. What would you suppose that would do to their relative regard nationally?

So let's get back to Big Ten Commissioner Delany.  He contends that the Big Ten had a difficult time because they were underdogs in so many bowl contests.  But according to BCS rankings, they're not. Unless you accept the fact that the Big Ten gets undeserved ratings boosts.  You can't have it both ways.

A final observation:  the only teams from the Big Ten that did not make it to a bowl are those that couldn't win more than two conference games.  Two!


Wisconsin v. TCU
This was a thoroughly entertaining game.  In a classic match up of Wisconsin's brawn v. TCU's speed, TCU proved itself tough enough.  What was notable - and admirable - was Wisconsin's final drive for the potential tie.  I could just imagine the boys getting together before that possession saying, "this is it, our season rests on us getting to the end zone before the clock runs out."  Despite failing on the two point conversion, it was most impressive. Nicely done Badgers.

Stanford v. Virginia Tech
I think I'm going to avoid predictions in the future because it takes the fun out of watching games in which I want the other team to win.  But I already stuck my neck out on the Big Ten, and have been mostly right.  In tonight's Orange Bowl, I'm still thinking that Stanford is going to light it up offensively.  The only question is how well Stanford can contain Tech's QB.

Referees
I've never seen so many games in which the replay booth overturned ball possession calls without the requisite "incontrovertible visual evidence."  Toledo got jobbed by such a call.  So did Missouri.  So did a number of other teams.  I can't help feeling that any replay can isolate one frame that seems to show the ball touching the ground. But, taken in toto, ball possession/control is plainly demonstrated.  Please get rid of the instant replay and just play the game.

Bowl Update #1

Hope for Penn State

Well Big Ten fans, the conference has a new chance for a win.  Florida has four - count 'em, four - starters out on injuries for the game v. Penn State: a cornerback, one offensive tackle and both defensive tackles. I don't think any team can hold up under that attrition.  The late nod goes to Penn State.


Boise State

I didn't get a chance to comment on this earlier, but Boise State was totally screwed by the bowl organizers.  They lost one game on a missed field goal to a talented Nevada team on the road and they end up playing in the Afterthought (Las Vegas) Bowl v. Utah. (The PAC-10 couldn't fill their bowl slot.)  This coming a year after the Broncos were matched up with TCU in the Children's Table Bowl.  Methinks the big institutions really, really do not want to play these guys.  I'm not a fan of the smurfs, but I feel bad for them.


Iowa v. Missouri Tonight

Big 12 fans will enjoy seeing Missouri stomp Iowa in tonight's Insight Bowl.  (I'm still trying to figure out why Nebraska is going to the Big 10 and Missouri is staying behind.  Maybe its just a matter of time.)

The Bowls

PAC-10
Normally, I'd talk a lot more about the PAC-10 than any other conference. With only four bowl-eligible teams, however, pickings are slim. Hard to see anyone but Stanford in the win column.

• Washington (6-6, 5-4) v. Nebraska (10-3, 6-2) - The Huskies get a rematch against a Nebraska team that dismantled them 56-21 in September. On paper, this might be the most lopsided bowl match up of the year. A sharper Jake Locker will be worth about two more TD's for the Huskies. It will take a miracle to do anything more. One can only hope.  Pick: Nebraska.

• Arizona (7-5, 4-5) v. Oklahoma State (10-2, 6-2) - Arizona lost its last four games.  Oklahoma State was picked for fifth and tied for the division title.  One team going up, the other going down.  Oklahoma State will score a ton of points on a weak Arizona defense.  Arizona should get some points, but not nearly enough. Oh, yeah, one more thing.  Arizona coach Mike Stoops is a dickhead. Look for him to rupture an aneurysm with his antics in the first quarter.  Pick: Oklahoma State.

• Oregon (12-0, 9-0) v. Auburn (13-0, 8-0) - As posted earlier, I just can't see Oregon taking Auburn.  Pick:  Auburn.

• Stanford (11-1, 8-1) v. Virginia Tech (11-2, 8-0) -  I keep coming to the same conclusions on this one.  Stanford's potent offense will score 40 points. Virginia Tech will get some points, but it will not be enough to stay close.  Pick: Stanford in a rout.

Big Ten
At first glance, I'm hard pressed to see the Big Ten winning any of their eight - yes, eight - bowl games.  I'm serious here.  The second glance isn't much better.  The Big Ten subscribes to the "bowl eligible" plan whereby you play just eight conference games and schedule out-of-conference patsies.  Whenever they play other major conference schools, they lose (Penn State to 'Bama, Iowa to Arizona, Illinois to Missouri, Minnesota to USC). OK, Wisconsin beat non-bowl eligible Arizona State...by one point....at home. The remaining five (oops, six: 6 + 5 = (Big) 10) conference teams played a total of zero quality non-conference games.  Despite the early season assessment that the Big Ten was weak, three teams (Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin) rose in the rankings because they had good records against mediocre or worse competition.  Voila, the Big Ten is a strong conference. Well, it's not. The only bowl wins possible for the Big Ten come in favorable match ups in which they face even less-deserving opponents. If then.  Here's the bowl breakdown:

• Iowa (7-5, 4-4) v. Missouri (10-2, 6-2) - Iowa lost last their last three games.  Missouri beat San Diego State, Oklahoma and Texas A&M; lost to Nebraska and Texas Tech (when Mizzou's QB had an exceptionally bad day).  Iowa also has two players (their top receiver and top running back) out on legal/discipline issues. The game will be over by the half.  Pick:  Missouri, no contest.

• Illinois (6-6, 4-4) v. Baylor (7-5, 4-4) - Illinois beat Penn State (apparently Penn State had a lot of injuries, which is the only way short of an act of god that could make that possible.)   Baylor has only one (debatable) quality win over Texas.  Neither team is particularly interesting.  Baylor is somewhat overrated, losing to every quality team it played, including its last three versus Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and Oklahoma.  Illinois is worse.  Pick:  Baylor in a close one.

• Northwestern (7-5, 3-5) v. Texas Tech (7-5, 3-5) - Tech caught Missouri on a bad day for its only quality win and also beat Baylor.  Northwestern upset Iowa, it's one somewhat "quality" win, but that came during the Hawkeyes' end-of-season El Foldo.  This game is a poster child for bowls run amok.  Winning just three conference games should qualify you for watching the games on TV, not playing in them.  Northwestern is without QB Dan Persa, otherwise, they'd be the favorite.   Pick:  Texas Tech.

• Penn State (7-5, 4-4) v. Florida (7-5, 4-4) - Penn State's refrain is familiar: play a quality opponent and you lose (Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan State). No quality wins. None.  And Florida?  Uh, same story (losses to Alabama, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina).  Florida gets the nod because they lost to MORE quality opponents.  Pick: Florida.

• Michigan State (11-1, 7-1) v. Alabama (9-3, 5-3) -  Alabama was competitive in all its big games this year but came up a bit short in each (South Carolina, LSU, Auburn).  Michigan State, on the other hand, is probably the single most overrated team in the nation. Michigan State's only hope for staving off disaster? Coach Mark Dantonio assisted under Alabama's Saban and has some familiarity with his system.  Pick:  Alabama will still crush them. 

• Michigan (7-5, 3-5) v. Mississippi State (8-4, 4-4) - Michigan benefits from scheduling: fatten up early on patsies, play one decent team and lose, win just three conference games.  They score a lot of points but give up just as many. Mississippi State is young but their coach has them playing within themselves on offense.  They're on an upward trajectory.  Michigan is going nowhere.  Pick: Mississippi State easily.

• Wisconsin (11-1, 7-1) v. TCU (12-0, 8-0) - This is a tough one.  Wisconsin coasted on an easy end-of-season schedule (Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, Northwestern) and earned style points for blowouts.  Arizona State should have beaten them in September at Camp Randall.  I can't help but think these guys have been untested all year.  TCU, on the other hand, has that ever suspect Mountain West schedule. The non-BCS chip on their shoulder means TCU really wants this one.  Overall, its a wonderfully classic match up of TCU's speed v. Wisconsin's brawn. I think TCU is tough enough, so I'm going with speed.  Pick:  TCU.

• Ohio State (11-1, 7-1) v. Arkansas (10-2, 6-2) - Ohio State has really only played - and lost to - one quality team all year (Wisconsin).  I'm not sure their win over Miami (FL) counts for much. Arkansas, on the other hand, lost to 'Bama and Auburn, but beat Texas A&M, South Carolina, Mississippi State and LSU. Gotta go with that pedigree. Fortunately for the Buckeye faithful, Terrell Pryor and their other budding capitalists will get to play.  OSU's defense may keep it close, but it's not enough.  Pick: Arkansas.
 

While it's difficult to believe that the Big Ten will lose all its bowl games, purely on odds alone, I'm thinking the best the conference can hope for is two wins.

More Big Ten
I read a week ago about the names for the Big Ten's two divisions:  Legends and Leaders. Oh...my...gawd.  Where do you even start?  Dumb? (Certainly.)  Meaningless? (Oh yeah.) Self-congratulatory? (Definitely.)  A total joke.  My money says they change the names.