Search Futbol Thots

Sunday, November 14, 2010

Down the Stretch Its Anybody's Ballgame

Time to get Futbol Thots back on track

Stanford's Bowl Prospects
Despite just one loss and current #6 rank in the BCS, Stanford's hopes of getting to the Rose Bowl are virtually nil. If things stay as they are, the Rose Bowl will be obligated to take TCU or Boise State. Stanford's only hope, should they win out, would be for Auburn to lose, giving either BSU or TCU a chance to move into the championship game, whether or not they deserve it.  The other big bowls will pick teams from the SEC or Big 12 and/or someone from the east coast.  The Sugar Bowl is Stanford's other best hope...officials attended the Arizona State game (ouch!).  My bet, though, is that they go with an SEC team and TCU. Meanwhile, Michigan State is a likely Rose Bowl entry, a team that defintely does not deserve any ranking better than 15th, if that. 

Big 10-1/2
Now, go figure that this conference, a clearly mediocre product this year with no national contender, will get two (are they allowed to have three?) in the BCS (Wisconsin, on balance a far more worthy team than Michigan State, despite the head to head result, will be the other). Meanwhile, Stanford, a team in the mix when pundits ask about the best one-loss team in the country, will likely have to settle for the Alamo Bowl. Seems to me the Bowls would be better served inviting Boise State to the Sugar or Orange Bowl, and ignore the minor league entries from the ACC and Big East, thereby clearing the way for the PAC to play in the Rose Bowl.  It won't happen, of course.

Biggest Losers of the Week
Boise State and TCU stock took a nose dive, their strength of schedule plummeting with Oregon State's shellacking at the hands of the worst team in the PAC and Utah's drubbing at Notre Dame.  (By the same token, Stanford's stock goes up, if only incrementally).  At least, that's what I thought until I thought about it for a moment.  The polls don't really look at strength of schedule. Bottom line: far too much emphasis is put on won-loss record, particularly if a team is undefeated. That only makes sense in playoff scenarios - which of course make polls moot. When deciding national champions by committee, you must look closely at strength of schedule.  It's the only way to accurately answer "who would win" when most of the top teams don't actually play each other. When they do play each other, they should be rewarded, not penalized. My ranking below reflects that approach.

Biggest Winners of the Week
Boise State and TCU. As stated previously, the polls don't care much about strength of schedule. Cowed by past "outrages," once you lose, you're toast in the polls.

National Championship
Auburn will not be going to the BCS championship game.  They will lose one more game. If not to Alabama, then to South Carolina.

My Rankings (BCS Ranking)

 1   Auburn (2 )  Placeholder: I think they're going to lose.
 2   Oregon (1)   I'm still not convinced of these guys
 3   LSU (5)
4    Alabama (11)
5    Arkansas (13)
6    Nebraska (8)
7    Boise State (4)
8    Stanford (6)
9    TCU (3)
10  Wisconsin (7)
11  South Carolina (17)
12  Oklahoma State  (10)
Anything after this doesn't matter

No comments:

Post a Comment